Billed as Manning vs Brady, we should be careful to remember that there is a lot more to a football game than two players. This is intended as an outline for what to watch out for, and possible outcomes this Sunday.
Patriots Offense
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| Another runaway playoff game? Unlikely. |
Let's start with Tom Brady and his newly noticed run game. Any way in which he can be allowed to choose when to throw gives his offense a tremendous advantage, and is bound to keep the defense honest. This may be seen as a tip that the Patriots offense cannot survive without a run game, but their offense this season has read the other way around. Tom Brady has been good enough passing the ball to allow the running backs to have opportunities that others don’t have under lesser QBs. It’s interesting to note that Legarrette Blount has a yards per carry average of 5, putting him on par with Jamaal Charles in the regular season. While this isn’t as impressive coming from a pass first offense like the Patriots, it does mean that people should have been less surprised with his performance against the Colts (ranked 26th in rush yards allowed/game). Stevan Ridley is equally impressive in the same area, with a 4.3 ypc over the season, putting him ahead of Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore and interestingly, equal to Sundays positional opposition Knowshon Moreno.
"with a lesser player under centre [New England] may be all but finished this season."
Of course, this is all just stats and doesn’t mean anything if Denver have a rush defense as formidable as the 85 Bears. While they’re admittedly not at that level, they are ranked as conceding 7th fewest yards through the season. This leads to a snap assessment that it could be close in the run game, but for the now long forgotten Tom Brady. Not that he’ll be channelling Michael Vick out there but it’s balance that gives the Patriots their potency, and with a lesser player under centre they may be all but finished this season.
At that we turn our attention to the passing game, which many thought would look stretched this season with a comparatively weak receiving core. This hasn’t been the case, and has once again proven Belichick’s ability to pick players for his team, rather than to fit his team around star acquisitions. This has been pointed to time and again with Tom Brady himself coming out of the 6th round, but has been hammered home by players like Julian Edelman who was picked up in the 7th.
Edelman hasn’t been mentioned within the ranks of the leagues top wideouts, but finished the regular season 4th in receptions. Belichick has designed a system that allows the Patriots to lose players like Wes Welker (to Denver) and Gronkowski (injury) and still threaten defenses with a pass game to the extent that their rushing game has exceeded expectations across the league. Without an ounce of foreshadowing for February, this receiving core is no match for Seattles DBs. The thing that pins this offense together is whether or not Rodgers Cromartie, Chris Harris and company can consistently cover Bradys receivers to the point that he is forced out of passing. It’s at that point that Denver can start to dictate how New England attack them, and that’s when we’ll start to see a reigning in of the scoreline.
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| Gronk will be sorely missed. |
Denver Broncos Offense
"[New England] have a much tougher challenge than the opposing defense"
And as soon as I say “reigning in the scoreline”, I have to turn my attention to Peyton Manning, that bodes well for my segway business. We all know the story of Peyton Manning’s year, records being broken left and right, swirling speculation over the MVP trophy, and on the cusp of another Super Bowl. Denver have never played second fiddle this season, and that won’t change come Sunday. The fact of the matter is that the Patriots are the closest, not expectedly so but they are.
Denver look to be strong favourites in the offensive struggle. Andrew Luck made the New England secondary look good last weekend, but I can’t see any way that someone would bet on Peyton Manning doing the same thing on Sunday.
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| More of the same for Welker and Co. may be in store. |
Luck is an exceptionally gifted QB, but is still prone to make the mistakes that define the line between good and great. Talib and McCourty can only do so much for the New England secondary, the whole group needs to play beyond their regular game in order to keep the pass game within reach. They have a much tougher challenge than the opposing defense, with Demaryius Thomas (Pro Bowl), Wes Welker and Julius Thomas (Pro Bowl) all pressing for the ball. You can cover one of them, you might be able to cover two of them, but to cover all three consistently all game will leave Eric Decker wide open. The Patriots defense is tightened due to the loss of both Wilfork and Mayo to injury, but the real worry is not how they’ve patch up inside the box, but how well this secondary can look after four high quality receivers. If they can’t do that, Moreno and Ball will be able to make the gains on the ground above those which Ridley and Blount can and we’ll have a high scoring game on our hands.
Concluding
The matchup is advertised and televised as a meeting of two great quarterbacks, but the really interesting story is in how the run game will be handled, and the defense that can effectively force a great quarterback to throw will make him look much less than as advertised.
I’m going to have to give this game to the Broncos. The Patriots have been the underdogs this season, and something has to give. Their defense cannot stand up to Peyton Manning through four quarters, and while their offense may be able to keep up into the half they will struggle to remain three dimensional in a shootout with the Broncos.
Prediction: Broncos take the AFC title 38 - 27.