Having looked like a clear cut decision only a few weeks ago, this class of quarterbacks is looking very healthy heading towards May. All three of the top prospects are likely to go to Houston (#1), Jacksonville (#3) or Cleveland (#4). The only reason anyone will fall below that is because of Jadeveon Clowney, and no-one can envision him hanging on for more than a pick or two.
Jonny Manziel
The most exciting player on this shortlist, and by extension the most difficult to predict with respect to his potential as a pro. The best case scenario is he blossoms into a Russell Wilson like player - able to make plays with his feet but still comfortable in the pocket. The worst case being that he emulates a player like Troy Smith, and let’s his athleticism take over and define his game rather than becoming an all-round threat in the way Wilson has grown.
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| Jonny Football |
His success is most probably determined by the scheme in which he plays, and no one expects him to be the proto-typical NFL quarterback. He is of the new school, the pass-first and run-second ideology. If he is given the freedom he needs to be the exciting player we've fallen in love with, then he can become a great player at the next level. However, that is a big "if". A team will need to be comfortable with handing the offense to Manziel and letting him play his game. If you don't build around him and adapt then drafting him in the first round is a big mistake. Only time will tell.
Teddy Bridgewater
Being touted as the most “pro ready” of the three due to his scheme in Louisville, and how he manages the game, Bridgewater is looking all set to be picked up by Jackonville or Oakland. I haven’t watched much tape from him but he’s never looked to be unsure or uncomfortable where I can’t always say the same thing for Manziel.
He looks the part to a greater extent than his cohorts on this list, which could indicate a lower ceiling. That isn't necessarily the case though, and for the number of teams that need a quarterback now (and not after a year or two of development) Bridgewater is the top prospect. As with Manziel there are comparisons to Russell Wilson cropping up, but Bridgewater's comparison not only goes deeper but he improves on Wilson in a couple of ways. You get the same composed and mature leader that you expect to get from a veteran QB, you also get a few inches on Wilson.
While Bridgewater is not as mobile, he does have the quickness required to evade blitzes, and he's much more likely to be a pass-first, pass-second style pro. The only thing that would hold him back at the next level is his arm-stregth, with scouts noting that accuracy was lacking on deeper throws (not that I've noticed as such).
Blake Bortles
Being spoken of as the third of the three up until this last week, Bortles is a more stereotypical quarterback. He has the size and stature to measure up to Peyton Manning and Big Ben, he is used to a pro-style offense and can already make the throws that he will have to make at the next level. I watched him sit down with Steve Mariucci on NFL Network and was pleasantly surprised by the intelligence he displayed, talking about plays he had never seen before.
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| Bortles in action for UCF |
It is worth noting that when looking at his game, he would come second to Bridgewater with regards to his excellent throwing action. He would present a similar level of development required on his longer throws as the deep ball accuracy isn't all there yet.
In college he played zone-read frequently, where he won't be as able in the NFL, due to his speed not being too great when considered on the pro scale. This leaves him in the position of having to learn to be patient, and become a true pocket passer. As I said though, he is a highly intelligent player who has the ability to learn his game is missing and improve upon it. If a team are patient with him over this season he can become a good starter in year two with the projection being that of a franchise QB. This comes down to patience, as some teams may not want to wait for that production to come out consistently.
The Next Tier
Worthy of more consideration that a lot of analysts are giving them, both Derek Carr and AJ McCarron are in that awkward situation of not being to top of class, but neither are they obviously part of a second tier (which would include Jimmy Garoppolo, Tajh Boyd and Zach Mettenberger). These two players are likely to disrupt what has been a clear cut top three throughout the early part of this draft process.Derek Carr
Coming out of Fresno State after his Senior year, Carr has more experience than those ranked above him. He is also carrying a school passing record into the draft. If that isn't enough to tempt a team into taking him as a more experienced choice (and thus easier to put straight in as a starter), then we turn to his professional scheme experience. He consistently played from the pocket, and demonstrated enough speed to elude the rush.The reason a top three ranking has eluded him is based on question marks around his ability to consistently play at a high level under pressure, and to not rush passes under pressure. These are things that cannot necessarily be taught so it's for Carr to demonstrate to teams that he has the fortitude to become that more consistent player.
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| Tried to find a pic of McCarron playing, this is as close as I came |
AJ McCarron
When looked at in comparison to players already in the NFL, McCarron is very average. Dependent onhow free agency plays out he's liable to slip down the draft board due to this.
He is ready to play in the NFL, but he certainly doesn't look capable of becoming a franchise QB. There is still room for growth in his game and this could result in him coming out as a surprise success in a year or two, as he does have the ability to play football at the next level. It depends on his mentality, and that of the team that takes a chance on him. Being allowed to develop into a starter would be the best course for McCarron, but he's likely to be thrown in and discarded before he is comfortable.